Tendwa, Orupa Michael

Economic Impact of Floods in Variable Climates:
The Case of Transportation Infrastructure in Pangani Basin, Tanzania


Historical flood events in Tanzania have involved the country in sensitive activities that have substantially affected economic performance and undermined poverty reduction efforts.

This study will evaluate the impacts of historical floods and their consequences on transport infrastructure in the Pangani basin in north-eastern Tanzania to fill the information gaps that currently persist. Such information is necessary to put an efficient and/or effective infrastructure in place that is resilient to extreme climate events.

A case-study strategy will be employed where the Pangani basin will be studied in-depth to understand the phenomenon under investigation. Quantitative, qualitative and spatial information will be collected using varying techniques and historical-flood information will be collected from a number of sources involving a wide range of stakeholders from different departments from various ministries. Vulnerability mapping showing flood extent and infrastructure affected by historical and possible future floods will be accomplished using habitat and village mapping with knowledgeable people in the community, a geo-information system and remote sensing. A linear regression model will be used to project future floods.

Based on secondary information combined “with and without” analysis will be used to assess the economic cost of damaged infrastructure from flood events. The impact will then be compared with the gross domestic product per capital indicator of a region. Finally, a cost-benefit analysis will be employed in the assessment of the economic viability and practical feasibility of historical adaptation measures. Complementary analysis procedures will be employed in the study: descriptive statistics for quantitative data and content analysis for qualitative data.

The findings from this study could be used as a decision-making tool to assist those setting strategies to put roads in place that are resilient to climate change as a measure to address the funding shortfall in roads maintenance. A guide for the community and scientific society will also be published as an empirical reference.

Supervisor: Prof Stephan Krygsman, Department of Logistics, Faculty of Economic & Management Sciences, Stellenbosch University.

Disciplinary history: BSc Hons, Urban and Regional Planning, University of Dar es Salaam; MSc. Engineering Management (Project Management), University of Dar es Salaam.

Faculty/department of registration: Faculty of Economics & Management Sciences Dept. of Logistics, SU (2013)